Expressing Probability in Mandarin Chinese: 可能, 也许, 大概, and 会
Learn to express probability in Mandarin Chinese using 可能 (maybe), 也许 (perhaps), 大概 (probably), and 会 (will/likely). Practice talking about likely and unlikely events with natural sentence patterns.
By TheaFirst conversations · Yapr Learn
In Mandarin Chinese, probability is expressed with a set of adverbs and modal verbs that differ from simple future or possibility markers. This lesson focuses on four key words: 可能 (kěnéng), 也许 (yěxǔ), 大概 (dàgài), and 会 (huì). You will learn how to say that something is likely, unlikely, or probable, and how these words differ from 会 (huì) for future certainty or 可以 (kěyǐ) for permission. By the end, you will be able to form sentences like 今天可能会下雨 (It might rain today) and 他大概不会来 (He probably won't come). The lesson includes patterns, a dialogue, and practice to help you use these words accurately in everyday conversation.
By the end, you can…
- use 可能, 也许, 大概, and 会 to express different degrees of probability.
- form negative sentences to say something is unlikely using 不会 or 不可能.
- ask and answer questions about the likelihood of future events.
Listen once. Try it slowly. Then say it without looking.
Checking available voices…
今天可能会下雨。
It might rain today.
Jīntiān kěnéng huì xiàyǔ.
Use 可能 + 会 to indicate a likely future event. 可能 softens the certainty.
他也许不来了。
Perhaps he isn't coming.
Tā yěxǔ bù lái le.
也许 means 'perhaps' and often appears at the beginning of a sentence or before the verb.
明天大概是晴天。
It will probably be sunny tomorrow.
Míngtiān dàgài shì qíngtiān.
大概 indicates a strong probability, similar to 'probably'. 晴天 is a noun, so use 是 before it.
他不可能不知道。
It's impossible that he doesn't know.
Tā bù kěnéng bù zhīdào.
不可能 means 'impossible'. Double negative emphasizes certainty.
我们大概不会迟到。
We probably won't be late.
Wǒmen dàgài bù huì chídào.
大概 + 不会 expresses a strong probability that something will not happen.
Pronunciation guides are approximate. Slow playback keeps the original pitch.
Make it make sense
Useful pattern
The most common pattern for expressing probability is: Subject + 可能/也许/大概 + 会 + Verb Phrase. For example, 他可能会来 (He might come). To say something is unlikely, use 不会 or 不可能: 他不会来 (He won't come) or 他不可能来 (It's impossible for him to come). Note that 可能 can also be used alone without 会: 他可能来 (He might come). The word 也许 is similar to 可能 but slightly more formal and often used in writing. 大概 implies a higher degree of certainty than 可能 or 也许. Compare: 他可能来 (maybe 50%), 他大概会来 (probably 70%), 他一定会来 (definitely 100%).
When to use it
Use these words when you are not completely sure about a future event or a present situation. For example, if you think it's likely to rain but you're not certain, say 今天可能会下雨. If you want to say that something is unlikely, use 不太可能 or 不会: 他不太可能来 (He's unlikely to come). In questions, you can ask 他会来吗？ (Will he come?) and answer with 可能会 (maybe) or 大概不会 (probably not). Also, remember that 会 can mean 'will' (future) or 'can' (ability), so context matters.
Listen to each line, then take one part and reply out loud.
明天天气怎么样？
What will the weather be like tomorrow?Míngtiān tiānqì zěnmeyàng?可能会下雨，你带伞吧。
It might rain, take an umbrella.Kěnéng huì xiàyǔ, nǐ dài sǎn ba.那大概几点下？
Then about what time will it rain?Nà dàgài jǐ diǎn xià?下午吧，也许三点左右。
In the afternoon, perhaps around three o'clock.Xiàwǔ ba, yěxǔ sān diǎn zuǒyòu.A little context goes a long way
In Mandarin, probability words are often used to soften statements and show politeness. For instance, saying 可能 instead of a direct assertion can make you sound less forceful. In formal writing, 也许 and 大概 are more common than in casual speech, where 可能 dominates. Also, when making predictions, Chinese speakers often combine probability words with 吧 (ba) to add a sense of conjecture, as in 明天会下雨吧 (It'll probably rain tomorrow).
One thing to watch for
A common error is using 可能 with 是...的 for emphasis, e.g., 他可能是来的 (intended: He might come).
Try this instead: To express probability about a future action, use 可能 + 会 + verb: 他可能会来. For present states, use 可能 + adjective/verb: 他可能在家. Avoid 是...的 with 可能 for future events. Instead, say 他可能会来.
Your turn
Try answering out loud before checking a possible answer.
1How would you say 'It will probably be cold tomorrow' using 大概?
Show a sample answer
明天大概会很冷。
大概 + 会 + adjective expresses strong probability. Alternatively, 明天可能会很冷 is also correct but implies less certainty.
2Translate: 'She might not come to the party.'
Show a sample answer
她可能不来参加聚会。
可能 + 不 + verb indicates a possible negative outcome. You can also say 她也许不来参加聚会, which is slightly more formal.
3What is the difference between 可能 and 大概 in terms of certainty?
Show a sample answer
可能 indicates possibility (maybe 50%), while 大概 indicates probability (maybe 70%).
大概 suggests a higher degree of certainty than 可能. Both can be used with 会, but 大概 often implies a stronger expectation.
Use 可能, 也许, and 大概 to express different levels of probability. Remember to pair them with 会 for future events, and use 不会 or 不可能 for unlikely outcomes. Practice these patterns to sound more natural in Mandarin.
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