Spanish for Elementary Learners: Expressing Probability with probable, poco probable, and probablemente
Learn to say what is likely, unlikely, or probably going to happen in Latin American Spanish using probable, poco probable, and probablemente.
By TheaFirst conversations · Yapr Learn
In English, you can say "It's likely to rain later" or "She'll probably call." Spanish has its own common ways to express probability: probable (likely), poco probable (unlikely), and probablemente (probably). These words let you talk about possibilities without promising that something will happen. In this lesson, you will learn elementary patterns with these expressions, see how they differ from future and might statements, and practice using them in everyday situations.
By the end, you can…
- say that something is likely or unlikely using es probable and es poco probable.
- use probablemente to say that someone probably does or will do something.
- ask and answer simple questions about probability in everyday situations.
Listen once. Try it slowly. Then say it without looking.
Checking available voices…
Es probable que llueva más tarde.
It's likely to rain later.
es pro-BAH-bleh keh YOO-eh-bah MAS TAR-deh
Use this to say an event is likely. The verb llueva is in the subjunctive after es probable que.
Es poco probable que venga.
It's unlikely that he/she will come.
es POH-koh pro-BAH-bleh keh BEN-gah
Use poco probable to say something is unlikely. Venga is subjunctive after the phrase.
Probablemente voy a llegar tarde.
I'm probably going to arrive late.
pro-bah-bleh-MEN-teh boy ah yeh-GAR TAR-deh
Probablemente before voy a + infinitive is common in everyday Latin American Spanish.
Probablemente ella esté en casa.
She is probably at home.
pro-bah-bleh-MEN-teh EH-yah ES-teh en KAH-sah
With probablemente + que or when expressing uncertainty, Spanish often uses the subjunctive: esté.
¿Es probable que nieve?
Is it likely to snow?
es pro-BAH-bleh keh NYEH-beh
A simple yes/no question about probability. Nieve is subjunctive after es probable que.
Pronunciation guides are approximate. Slow playback keeps the original pitch.
Make it make sense
Useful pattern
The most useful pattern is es probable que + subjunctive for "it's likely that..." and es poco probable que + subjunctive for "it's unlikely that..." Examples: Es probable que llueva. (It's likely to rain.) Es poco probable que nieve. (It's unlikely to snow.) For a personal action, probablemente + present or ir a + infinitive also works: Probablemente voy a salir. (I'm probably going to go out.) Probablemente ella llame. (She'll probably call.)
When to use it
Use these expressions when you want to give your opinion about how possible something is, not when you are making a firm plan. Compare: Va a llover. (It's going to rain — a prediction with more certainty.) Puede que llueva. (It might rain — a possibility.) Es probable que llueva. (It's likely to rain — you think there is a good chance.) Es poco probable que llueva. (It's unlikely to rain — you think there is little chance.) Probablemente llueva. (It will probably rain.)
Listen to each line, then take one part and reply out loud.
¿Crees que va a llover hoy?
Do you think it's going to rain today?KREH-es keh bah ah YOH-ber OYEs probable que llueva más tarde.
It's likely to rain later.es pro-BAH-bleh keh YOO-eh-bah MAS TAR-deh¿Y es probable que haga frío?
And is it likely to be cold?ee es pro-BAH-bleh keh AH-gah FREE-ohEs poco probable, pero probablemente lleve una chamarra.
It's unlikely, but I'll probably take a jacket.es POH-koh pro-BAH-bleh PEH-roh pro-bah-bleh-MEN-teh YEH-beh OO-nah chah-MAH-rrahA little context goes a long way
In Latin American Spanish, probablemente is common in everyday conversation. In writing, you may also see probablemente que + subjunctive, but in speech many speakers simply use probablemente with the present or ir a + infinitive. Regional preferences exist: some speakers use quizás or tal vez for "maybe," but those often suggest less certainty than es probable.
One thing to watch for
Es probable que llueve.
Try this instead: After es probable que, use the subjunctive: Es probable que llueva. The same applies to es poco probable que: Es poco probable que venga, not Es poco probable que viene.
Your turn
Try answering out loud before checking a possible answer.
1How would you say "It's unlikely that we will travel" using es poco probable que?
Show a sample answer
Es poco probable que viajemos.
Es poco probable que triggers the subjunctive viajemos. A valid alternative is Es poco probable que nosotros viajemos, adding the subject for emphasis.
2Translate: "I'm probably going to study tonight."
Show a sample answer
Probablemente voy a estudiar esta noche.
Probablemente + ir a + infinitive is a natural way to express personal probability. You could also say Probablemente estudie esta noche, using the subjunctive.
3What is the difference between Va a llover and Es probable que llueva?
Show a sample answer
Va a llover states a prediction more directly, while Es probable que llueva says that rain is likely but not certain.
Both refer to future rain, but es probable que expresses probability rather than a firm prediction. Either can be appropriate depending on how certain you feel.
Use es probable que + subjunctive for likely, es poco probable que + subjunctive for unlikely, and probablemente for probably. These expressions let you talk about probability clearly without promising certainty.
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