Korean Probability: Expressing 'likely', 'unlikely', and 'probably'
Learn to use Korean probability words like 아마, 것 같아요, and 가능성이 높아요 to say what is likely, unlikely, or probable, without relying on will or might.
By TheaFirst conversations · Yapr Learn
In Korean, probability is often expressed with adverbs and set phrases rather than by changing the verb tense. The word 아마 (ama) means 'probably' or 'perhaps', and it works together with endings like -ㄹ 거예요 (-l geoyeyo) or -겠어요 (-gesseoyo). For likelihood, Koreans commonly use 것 같아요 (geot gatayo, 'it seems/looks like') or 가능성이 높아요/낮아요 (ganeungseong-i nopayo/najayo, 'the possibility is high/low'). This lesson teaches you to talk about how likely something is, from 'probably' to 'unlikely', using natural elementary-level patterns.
By the end, you can…
- use 아마 with -ㄹ 거예요 to say something is probably going to happen.
- express likelihood with 가능성이 높아요 and unlikelihood with 가능성이 낮아요.
- use 것 같아요 to say something seems likely based on what I know.
- ask and answer simple questions about probability in Korean.
Listen once. Try it slowly. Then say it without looking.
Checking available voices…
아마 비가 올 거예요.
It will probably rain. / It's likely to rain.
ama biga ol geoyeyo
Use 아마 with a future tense ending to show probability. It softens the statement; it is not a guarantee.
비가 올 것 같아요.
It seems like it will rain. / It looks like it's going to rain.
biga ol geot gatayo
것 같아요 expresses a guess based on evidence (clouds, forecast). It is softer than a plain future statement.
비가 올 가능성이 높아요.
There is a high possibility of rain. / It's likely to rain.
biga ol ganeungseong-i nopayo
This is a more formal or objective way to say something is likely. Useful in weather reports or serious predictions.
비가 올 가능성이 낮아요.
There is a low possibility of rain. / It's unlikely to rain.
biga ol ganeungseong-i najayo
Use this to say something is unlikely. The opposite is 가능성이 높아요.
아마 안 올 거예요.
It probably won't come. / It's probably not going to happen.
ama an ol geoyeyo
Put 안 before the verb to make the probability negative. 아마 still means 'probably'.
Pronunciation guides are approximate. Slow playback keeps the original pitch.
Make it make sense
Useful pattern
The most common pattern for 'probably' is 아마 + verb + -ㄹ 거예요. For example, 아마 비가 올 거예요 (It will probably rain). To say 'seems like', use verb stem + -ㄹ 것 같아요: 비가 올 것 같아요 (It seems like it will rain). For a more objective 'likely/unlikely', use 가능성이 높아요/낮아요 with the noun form -ㄹ 가능성: 비가 올 가능성이 높아요 (The possibility of rain is high). These patterns let you adjust how strong your guess is without changing the basic meaning of the verb.
When to use it
Use 아마 + -ㄹ 거예요 in everyday conversation when you are making a personal guess: 아마 늦을 거예요 (I'll probably be late). Use -ㄹ 것 같아요 when you have some evidence but are not certain: 지금 비가 오는 것 같아요 (It seems like it's raining now). Use 가능성이 높아요/낮아요 in more formal or written contexts, such as news or reports: 내일 비가 올 가능성이 높습니다 (There is a high probability of rain tomorrow). Choose the pattern that matches how confident you are and the situation's formality.
Listen to each line, then take one part and reply out loud.
오늘 오후에 비가 올까요?
Do you think it will rain this afternoon?oneul ohu-e biga olkkayo?네, 아마 비가 올 거예요. 하늘이 흐려요.
Yes, it will probably rain. The sky is cloudy.ne, ama biga ol geoyeyo. haneuri heuryeoyo.그럼 우산을 가져가야겠네요.
Then I should take an umbrella.geureom usaneul gajyeogayagetneyo.네, 하지만 오후 늦게는 비가 올 가능성이 낮아요.
Yes, but later in the afternoon the chance of rain is low.ne, hajiman ohu neutge-neun biga ol ganeungseong-i najayo.A little context goes a long way
Korean often uses 아마 with a soft ending like -ㄹ 거예요 to avoid sounding too direct. In formal situations, such as weather forecasts, speakers prefer 가능성이 높아요/낮아요 or -겠습니다. Using 것 같아요 can sound more polite and less assertive than a plain statement, which is valued in Korean conversation.
One thing to watch for
Using 아마 with a present tense verb, as in 아마 비가 와요, to mean 'It's probably raining.'
Try this instead: In Korean, 아마 usually pairs with a future or guess ending, not the plain present. Say 아마 비가 올 거예요 (It will probably rain) or 아마 비가 오는 것 같아요 (It seems like it's raining). The present tense 아마 비가 와요 sounds incomplete or unnatural for a probability statement.
Your turn
Try answering out loud before checking a possible answer.
1How would you say 'It's probably going to be cold tomorrow' using 아마?
Show a sample answer
아마 내일 추울 거예요.
This uses 아마 + future tense -ㄹ 거예요. You could also say 내일 추울 것 같아요, which is slightly softer.
2Translate: 'There is a low possibility of snow.'
Show a sample answer
눈이 올 가능성이 낮아요.
This uses 가능성이 낮아요 with the noun form -ㄹ 가능성. Alternatives include 눈이 올 것 같지 않아요 (It doesn't seem like it will snow).
3What is the difference between 아마 비가 올 거예요 and 비가 올 가능성이 높아요?
Show a sample answer
The first is a personal guess meaning 'It will probably rain.' The second is a more objective statement meaning 'The possibility of rain is high.'
Both express likelihood, but 아마 ... -ㄹ 거예요 is conversational, while 가능성이 높아요 is more formal and factual. Context determines which is more appropriate.
Use 아마 with -ㄹ 거예요 for everyday 'probably', 것 같아요 for 'seems like', and 가능성이 높아요/낮아요 for formal 'likely/unlikely'. Match the pattern to your confidence and situation.
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