Japanese Probability: Expressing 'Likely' and 'Unlikely' with でしょう and かもしれません
Learn to express probability in Japanese using でしょう (probably/likely) and かもしれません (might/unlikely), and distinguish them from the simple future ます and the tentative かもしれません. Practice with weather and daily situations.
By TheaFirst conversations · Yapr Learn
In Japanese, probability is often expressed through sentence-ending particles and adverbs rather than separate verbs. The two most useful patterns for elementary learners are でしょう (deshou) for 'probably' or 'likely', and かもしれません (kamoshiremasen) for 'might' or 'possibly'. These differ from the plain future tense (〜ます) and from the more definite つもり (intention). This lesson teaches you to say things like 'It's likely to rain later' using でしょう, and 'It might rain' using かもしれません. You will also learn the adverb たぶん (tabun) to reinforce probability. By the end, you will be able to talk about uncertain events naturally, without overusing 〜ます for future predictions.
By the end, you can…
- express that something is likely or probable using でしょう.
- express that something is possible but less certain using かもしれません.
- use たぶん to strengthen or soften probability.
- distinguish probability from simple future statements.
Listen once. Try it slowly. Then say it without looking.
Checking available voices…
雨が降るでしょう。
It will probably rain. / It's likely to rain.
Ame ga furu deshou.
Use でしょう after a plain-form verb to say something is likely. Common in weather forecasts.
雨が降るかもしれません。
It might rain. / It's possible that it will rain.
Ame ga furu kamoshiremasen.
Expresses lower probability than でしょう. Often used when you are unsure.
たぶん雨が降るでしょう。
It will probably rain.
Tabun ame ga furu deshou.
たぶん adds emphasis to probability. It is most natural with でしょう; with かもしれません it sounds contradictory, since たぶん implies more certainty than かもしれません.
明日は晴れるでしょう。
It will probably be sunny tomorrow.
Ashita wa hareru deshou.
でしょう can follow an adjective or verb in plain form. Here 晴れる is a verb.
彼は来ないかもしれません。
He might not come.
Kare wa konai kamoshiremasen.
Negative form of かもしれません. Use plain negative verb + かもしれません.
Pronunciation guides are approximate. Slow playback keeps the original pitch.
Make it make sense
Useful pattern
To express probability, attach でしょう or かもしれません to the plain form of a verb or adjective. For example: 雨が降るでしょう (It will probably rain), 高いでしょう (It's probably expensive). With nouns and な-adjectives, でしょう follows the noun or な-adjective directly, without だ: 学生でしょう (He is probably a student), 元気でしょう (He is probably well). For lower probability, use かもしれません: 雨が降るかもしれません (It might rain). Note that でしょう can also be used with a rising intonation to ask for agreement, but in this lesson we focus on its probability meaning. The adverb たぶん (probably) often appears with でしょう, but not with かもしれません because たぶん implies higher certainty.
When to use it
Use でしょう when you have some evidence or expectation that something is likely, such as a weather forecast or a logical guess. Use かもしれません when you are less sure, or when you want to be cautious. For example, if you see dark clouds, you might say 雨が降るでしょう (It's likely to rain). If you just heard a rumor, you might say 雨が降るかもしれません (It might rain). Avoid using でしょう for direct future plans you control; instead use 〜ます (e.g., 明日行きます I will go tomorrow). Also, でしょう is more formal than だろう, which is used in casual speech.
Listen to each line, then take one part and reply out loud.
午後は雨が降るでしょう。
It will probably rain in the afternoon.Gogo wa ame ga furu deshou.そうですか。でも、晴れるかもしれませんよ。
Is that so? But it might clear up.Sou desu ka. Demo, hareru kamoshiremasen yo.たぶん降るでしょう。空が暗いですから。
It will probably rain. Because the sky is dark.Tabun furu deshou. Sora ga kurai desu kara.じゃあ、傘を持って行ったほうがいいですね。
Then it's better to take an umbrella, isn't it?Jaa, kasa o motte itta hou ga ii desu ne.A little context goes a long way
In Japanese, probability expressions are often softened with でしょう or かもしれません to avoid sounding too assertive. This is especially important in polite conversation, where direct predictions can seem pushy. Weather forecasts on TV frequently use でしょう, while かもしれません is common in everyday speculation. Using たぶん with でしょう is natural, but たぶん with かもしれません sounds slightly contradictory because たぶん implies more certainty than かもしれません. Also, でしょう with a falling intonation is a statement, while a rising intonation turns it into a confirmation question (〜でしょう？), similar to 'right?'.
One thing to watch for
Using 〜ます form for probability, e.g., 雨が降りますでしょう.
Try this instead: Do not attach でしょう to the polite 〜ます form. Use the plain form: 雨が降るでしょう. The 〜ます form is for present/future tense, not for probability. Similarly, かもしれません attaches to the plain form: 雨が降るかもしれません, not 雨が降りますかもしれません.
Your turn
Try answering out loud before checking a possible answer.
1How would you say 'It will probably be cold tomorrow' using でしょう?
Show a sample answer
明日は寒いでしょう。
Use the plain form of the adjective 寒い (cold) plus でしょう. This expresses a likely prediction about the weather.
2What is the difference between 雨が降るでしょう and 雨が降るかもしれません?
Show a sample answer
でしょう means 'probably/likely', while かもしれません means 'might/possibly'. The former indicates higher probability.
でしょう is used when you have more confidence, while かもしれません is for lower certainty. Both attach to the plain form.
3Translate: 'He might not come.' Use かもしれません.
Show a sample answer
彼は来ないかもしれません。
Use the plain negative form 来ない (konai) plus かもしれません. This expresses a negative possibility.
Use でしょう for likely events and かもしれません for possible ones. Always attach them to plain forms, not 〜ます. Add たぶん with でしょう for extra probability, but not with かもしれません.
Progress is saved on this browser.
Practice real time conversations on Yapr for faster learning.
Put today’s Japanese into a conversation with an AI tutor. Speak, make mistakes, and try again.
Practice on Yapr