Expressing Probability in Italian: probabile, improbabile, and probabilmente
Learn to say what is likely, unlikely, or probably going to happen in Italian using probabile, improbabile, and probabilmente, with clear patterns and examples.
By TheaFirst conversations · Yapr Learn
In Italian, you often want to say that something is likely, unlikely, or probably true. Instead of relying only on the future tense or the verb potere, Italian uses probability words such as probabile, improbabile, and probabilmente. These words let you comment on how possible a situation is. This lesson teaches the most useful elementary patterns for everyday speech, including how to say 'It's likely to rain later' and 'She's probably at home'. You will learn where to place these words and how they differ from simply saying something will or might happen.
By the end, you can…
- say that something is likely or unlikely using probabile and improbabile.
- use probabilmente to say that something is probably true or will probably happen.
- ask and answer simple questions about how probable an event is.
Listen once. Try it slowly. Then say it without looking.
Checking available voices…
È probabile che piova più tardi.
It's likely to rain later.
eh pro-BAH-bee-leh keh PYOH-vah pyoo tar-DEE
Standard pattern with che + congiuntivo. Use for likely events, especially weather or plans.
È improbabile che venga stasera.
It's unlikely that he/she is coming tonight.
eh eem-pro-BAH-bee-leh keh VEN-gah stah-SEH-rah
Improbabile is the direct opposite of probabile. Also followed by che + congiuntivo.
Probabilmente pioverà più tardi.
It will probably rain later.
pro-bah-beel-MEN-teh pyoh-veh-RAH pyoo tar-DEE
Probabilmente is an adverb. It often comes at the start of the sentence and works with the future tense.
Lei è probabilmente a casa.
She is probably at home.
lay eh pro-bah-beel-MEN-teh ah KAH-zah
Probabilmente can also go after the verb. This word order is common and neutral.
Quanto è probabile?
How likely is it?
KWAHN-toh eh pro-BAH-bee-leh
Useful question for asking about probability. Answer with È molto probabile or È poco probabile.
Pronunciation guides are approximate. Slow playback keeps the original pitch.
Make it make sense
Useful pattern
The core pattern is È probabile che / È improbabile che + a verb in the congiuntivo (subjunctive). For example: È probabile che piova. È improbabile che venga. At elementary level, learn these as fixed chunks. The adverb probabilmente is easier because it does not trigger the subjunctive: Probabilmente pioverà. Probabilmente viene. You can also use è molto probabile (very likely) and è poco probabile (not very likely) to soften or strengthen your opinion.
When to use it
Use probabile and improbabile when you are judging how possible a future or present situation is. Use probabilmente when you want to say 'probably' about an action or state: Probabilmente è a casa. Probabilmente arriveranno tardi. These are not the same as the future tense or potere. The future tense states what will happen; probability words show your judgment. Compare: Pioverà (It will rain) and È probabile che piova (It's likely to rain). In everyday conversation, probabilmente is very common and safe for beginners.
Listen to each line, then take one part and reply out loud.
Domani andiamo al parco?
Are we going to the park tomorrow?doh-MAH-nee an-DYAH-moh ahl PAR-kohÈ probabile, ma dipende dal tempo.
It's likely, but it depends on the weather.eh pro-BAH-bee-leh mah dee-PEN-deh dahl TEM-pohSe piove, probabilmente restiamo a casa.
If it rains, we'll probably stay at home.seh PYOH-veh pro-bah-beel-MEN-teh res-TYAH-moh ah KAH-zahSì, è improbabile che usciamo con la pioggia.
Yes, it's unlikely that we'll go out in the rain.see eh eem-pro-BAH-bee-leh keh oo-SHOO-ah-moh kohn lah PYOH-jahA little context goes a long way
In Italian conversation, probability words often sound more natural than a bare future tense when you are guessing or making a soft prediction. Probabilmente is common in both formal and informal speech. In northern Italy you may hear the adverb placed after the verb more often, while in the south it can be more common at the beginning, but both orders are understood everywhere.
One thing to watch for
È probabile che piove.
Try this instead: After È probabile che, use the congiuntivo: È probabile che piova. The indicative piove is a common temptation, but the standard form is piova. If the subjunctive feels difficult, use the adverb instead: Probabilmente pioverà.
Your turn
Try answering out loud before checking a possible answer.
1Translate: It's likely to rain later.
Show a sample answer
È probabile che piova più tardi.
This uses È probabile che + congiuntivo piova. Probabilmente pioverà più tardi is also correct and avoids the subjunctive.
2Translate: She is probably at home.
Show a sample answer
Lei è probabilmente a casa.
Probabilmente can follow the verb. Probabilmente è a casa is equally correct.
3Make it negative in meaning: È probabile che venga.
Show a sample answer
È improbabile che venga.
Improbabile means unlikely. You can also say È poco probabile che venga, which is slightly softer.
Use probabile and improbabile with che + congiuntivo for judgments, and probabilmente as a flexible adverb when you want a simpler, very common way to say 'probably'.
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