German: Expressing Probability with wahrscheinlich, unwahrscheinlich and vermutlich
Learn to say what is likely, unlikely or probable in German using wahrscheinlich, unwahrscheinlich and vermutlich, and see how these differ from werden and könnte.
By TheaFirst conversations · Yapr Learn
English often shows probability with words like 'likely', 'unlikely' and 'probably'. German does the same, mainly with the adjectives and adverbs wahrscheinlich ('probable, probably'), unwahrscheinlich ('improbable, unlikely') and vermutlich ('presumably, probably'). These words let you comment on how probable something is without saying it will definitely happen. They are different from the future tense with werden ('will') and from könnte ('could, might'), which show prediction or possibility rather than a graded judgement of probability. In this lesson you will learn the core phrases, where they go in a German sentence, and how to avoid common word-order mistakes.
By the end, you can…
- say that something is likely, unlikely or probable in German.
- use wahrscheinlich, unwahrscheinlich and vermutlich in correct sentence positions.
- contrast probability words with werden ('will') and könnte ('might').
Listen once. Try it slowly. Then say it without looking.
Checking available voices…
Es regnet wahrscheinlich später.
It will probably rain later. / It's likely to rain later.
es REK-net vahr-SHAIN-likh SHPAA-ter
Standard German. wahrscheinlich sits before the time word später and comments on how likely the rain is.
Das ist unwahrscheinlich.
That is unlikely. / That's improbable.
das ist un-vahr-SHAIN-likh
unwahrscheinlich is the direct opposite of wahrscheinlich. Use it for things you judge to be improbable.
Er kommt vermutlich zu spät.
He'll presumably be late. / He's probably going to be late.
air KOMT fair-MOOT-likh tsoo SHPATE
vermutlich is a slightly more formal or written-style 'probably'. Common in news and reports.
Wahrscheinlich bleibt sie zu Hause.
She'll probably stay at home.
vahr-SHAIN-likh SHPYPT zee tsoo HOW-zeh
When wahrscheinlich starts the sentence, the verb comes second: Wahrscheinlich bleibt sie..., not Wahrscheinlich sie bleibt.
Es ist sehr wahrscheinlich, dass es morgen schneit.
It is very likely that it will snow tomorrow.
es ist zair vahr-SHAIN-likh das es MOR-gen shnite
The pattern es ist wahrscheinlich, dass... ('it is likely that...') is useful for full statements.
Pronunciation guides are approximate. Slow playback keeps the original pitch.
Make it make sense
Useful pattern
The core pattern is a statement plus a probability word. wahrscheinlich and vermutlich can stand in the middle field (after the verb) or at the start for emphasis: Es regnet wahrscheinlich später. / Wahrscheinlich regnet es später. Both mean 'It will probably rain later.' With a dass-clause, use: Es ist wahrscheinlich, dass es später regnet. ('It is likely that it will rain later.') The negative judgement uses unwahrscheinlich: Es ist unwahrscheinlich, dass er kommt. ('It is unlikely that he will come.').
When to use it
Use these words when you want to grade probability, not make a firm promise or prediction. Compare: Es wird später regnen. ('It will rain later.' – future prediction with werden) versus Es könnte später regnen. ('It might rain later.' – possibility with könnte) versus Es regnet wahrscheinlich später. ('It will probably rain later.' – probability judgement). In everyday speech, wahrscheinlich is the most common; vermutlich sounds a little more formal or distanced, and is frequent in news and written German. In southern Germany, Austria and Switzerland you may also hear leicht or gut möglich for 'quite possible', but wahrscheinlich remains widely understood.
Listen to each line, then take one part and reply out loud.
Was machen wir morgen? Kommt Anna mit?
What are we doing tomorrow? Is Anna coming along?vas MA-khen veer MOR-gen? KOMT AN-na mitWahrscheinlich kommt sie mit, aber sie hat viel Arbeit.
She'll probably come along, but she has a lot of work.vahr-SHAIN-likh KOMT zee mit, OW-ber zee hat feel AR-biteUnd wenn es regnet? Bleiben wir dann drinnen?
And if it rains? Will we stay inside then?unt ven es REK-net? BLY-ben veer dan DRIN-nenEs ist unwahrscheinlich, dass es regnet. Aber vermutlich bleiben wir trotzdem drinnen.
It's unlikely that it will rain. But we'll presumably stay inside anyway.es ist un-vahr-SHAIN-likh das es REK-net. AA-ber fair-MOOT-likh BLY-ben veer TROTS-dame DRIN-nenA little context goes a long way
wahrscheinlich is neutral and common in everyday spoken German. vermutlich is more formal and often appears in written reports or cautious statements; using it in casual chat can sound slightly stiff. In Austria and Switzerland, wahrscheinlich is standard too, though some speakers prefer phrases like es ist gut möglich or leicht möglich for 'quite possible'. Avoid treating these words as exact mathematical probabilities; they express a speaker's judgement, not a measured percentage.
One thing to watch for
Putting the verb in the wrong place after a sentence-initial probability word: *Wahrscheinlich sie bleibt zu Hause.
Try this instead: In a German main clause the verb must be in second position. Say: Wahrscheinlich bleibt sie zu Hause. ('She'll probably stay at home.') The probability word occupies first position, so the verb bleibt comes immediately after it, before the subject sie.
Your turn
Try answering out loud before checking a possible answer.
1Translate: 'It's likely to rain later.'
Show a sample answer
Es regnet wahrscheinlich später.
wahrscheinlich expresses probability and normally stands in the middle field. Es wird wahrscheinlich später regnen is also possible and adds a future flavour, but the simple present with wahrscheinlich is the most natural everyday option.
2Make a sentence with unwahrscheinlich: 'It's unlikely that he's coming.'
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Es ist unwahrscheinlich, dass er kommt.
The pattern es ist unwahrscheinlich, dass... is standard. You could also say Er kommt unwahrscheinlich, but that is much less idiomatic; the dass-clause is clearer.
3Choose between wahrscheinlich and vermutlich for a formal written report: 'The train will presumably arrive late.'
Show a sample answer
Der Zug kommt vermutlich zu spät. / Der Zug wird vermutlich zu spät kommen.
vermutlich fits the more formal, cautious tone of a report. wahrscheinlich would also be grammatically correct and is not wrong, but it sounds more conversational.
Use wahrscheinlich for everyday 'probably/likely', unwahrscheinlich for 'unlikely', and vermutlich for a more formal 'presumably'. Remember the verb-second rule: Wahrscheinlich kommt sie mit, not *Wahrscheinlich sie kommt mit.
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