French Lesson: Expressing Probability with 'likely', 'unlikely', and 'probably'
Learn to express probability in French using 'probablement', 'peu probable', and 'il est probable que'. Suitable for elementary learners.
By TheaFirst conversations · Yapr Learn
In this lesson, you will learn how to express probability in French, focusing on words like 'likely', 'unlikely', and 'probably'. Unlike the future tense or the conditional, which indicate actions that will or would happen, probability words allow you to comment on how likely an event is. You will learn key phrases such as 'Il est probable qu'il pleuve' (It's likely to rain) and 'Il est peu probable qu'il vienne' (It's unlikely he will come). We will also cover the adverb 'probablement' (probably). Pay attention to the use of the subjunctive mood after 'il est probable que', which is a common structure in French. By the end of this lesson, you will be able to express varying degrees of probability in everyday conversations.
By the end, you can…
- express that something is likely using 'il est probable que' + subjunctive.
- express that something is unlikely using 'il est peu probable que' + subjunctive.
- use the adverb 'probablement' to mean 'probably'.
Listen once. Try it slowly. Then say it without looking.
Checking available voices…
Il est probable qu'il pleuve plus tard.
It's likely to rain later.
eel eh pro-babl keel pluhv ploo tar
Use 'il est probable que' + subjunctive to express likelihood. The subjunctive form 'pleuve' is used for 'il pleut'.
Il est peu probable qu'il vienne.
It's unlikely he will come.
eel eh puh pro-babl keel vyen
Use 'il est peu probable que' + subjunctive to express unlikelihood. 'Vienne' is the subjunctive of 'venir'.
Il viendra probablement.
He will probably come.
eel vyen-dra pro-ba-ble-mahn
The adverb 'probablement' modifies the verb. It usually goes after the verb in simple tenses.
C'est probablement oui.
It's probably yes.
say pro-ba-ble-mahn wee
A short answer meaning 'probably yes'. Note that 'il est probable que oui' is not idiomatic; use 'probablement oui' or 'c'est probablement oui'.
Probablement pas.
Probably not.
pro-ba-ble-mahn pah
A short answer meaning 'probably not'. 'Il est peu probable que non' is not idiomatic; use 'probablement pas'.
Pronunciation guides are approximate. Slow playback keeps the original pitch.
Make it make sense
Useful pattern
The main pattern for expressing probability is 'il est probable que' + subjunctive for likely events, and 'il est peu probable que' + subjunctive for unlikely events. For example, 'Il est probable qu'il vienne' means 'It's likely he will come.' The subjunctive is required because these expressions convey uncertainty. Alternatively, you can use the adverb 'probablement' with the indicative: 'Il viendra probablement.' This is simpler and common in spoken French.
When to use it
Use these expressions to comment on the likelihood of an event. For instance, if you want to say that something is likely to happen, use 'il est probable que'. If you think it's unlikely, use 'il est peu probable que'. The adverb 'probablement' can be used in statements like 'Il va probablement pleuvoir' (It's probably going to rain). Note that 'probablement' can also be placed at the beginning of a sentence for emphasis: 'Probablement, il viendra.'
Listen to each line, then take one part and reply out loud.
Tu penses qu'il va pleuvoir demain ?
Do you think it will rain tomorrow?too pahns keel vah pluh-vwar duh-manIl est probable qu'il pleuve, oui.
It's likely to rain, yes.eel eh pro-babl keel pluhv weeEt pour le pique-nique ?
And for the picnic?ay poor luh peek-neekIl est peu probable qu'on le fasse.
It's unlikely we'll do it.eel eh puh pro-babl kohn luh fassA little context goes a long way
In French, the subjunctive mood is often used after expressions of probability like 'il est probable que'. While in English the indicative is common ('It's likely that he comes'), French requires the subjunctive. This is a key difference. In casual conversation, however, many French speakers use the indicative with 'probablement', which is perfectly acceptable. Be aware that overusing the subjunctive in informal contexts might sound formal.
One thing to watch for
Using the indicative after 'il est probable que', e.g., 'Il est probable qu'il vient'.
Try this instead: The correct form requires the subjunctive: 'Il est probable qu'il vienne'. Remember that 'il est probable que' triggers the subjunctive because it expresses uncertainty.
Your turn
Try answering out loud before checking a possible answer.
1How do you say 'It's likely to snow' in French?
Show a sample answer
Il est probable qu'il neige.
This uses 'il est probable que' + subjunctive 'neige' for 'il neige'. Alternatively, you could say 'Il neigera probablement.'
2Translate: 'She will probably arrive late.'
Show a sample answer
Elle arrivera probablement en retard.
The adverb 'probablement' is placed after the verb 'arrivera'. You could also say 'Il est probable qu'elle arrive en retard.'
3What is the difference between 'il est probable que' and 'probablement'?
Show a sample answer
'Il est probable que' is a phrase that requires the subjunctive and expresses likelihood, while 'probablement' is an adverb that modifies a verb and is used with the indicative.
Both express probability, but the structure differs. 'Il est probable que' is more formal and emphatic, while 'probablement' is more common in everyday speech.
Use 'il est probable que' + subjunctive for likely events, 'il est peu probable que' + subjunctive for unlikely events, and 'probablement' as an adverb for 'probably'.
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